Last night, The DGA shocked a number of observers when it gave the director of the movie about overcoming personal handicaps, Tom Hooper, the prize over the favored David Fincher, who's movie made Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg even more famous. That sealed the deal for the Oscars.
Here's why.
UPDATE: Here's my video on The Social Network vs. The Kings Speech at The Oscars:
If you're predicting which films the 5,744 voting members of the Academy Of Motion Picture Arts and Science (AMPAS) will pick for the 24 nominating categories in the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, here's a tip: the winner of the Director's Guild of America (DGA) Best Director Award has won the same prize at The Oscars all but six times in history going back to 1948.
Plus, the film of the winner of Oscar Best Director generally wins Oscars Best Picture. On only 21 times in Oscars history has the Best Picture winner not snagged the Best Director Prize, going all the way back to 1927.
Last year, Kathryn Bigelow won DGA Best Director for The Hurt Locker, and went on to get both Best Director and Best Picture for the war movie at the 82nd Annual Academy Awards.
If The Social Network, which to date has won more awards than any other movie, wins Best Director and Best Picture, or at least manages a split here, it will be a rare achievement, but don't bet the ranch.
Now, to make it clear, the Academy voting members already made their choices and turned their ballots in on or before January 19th. Someone, somewhere in the World knows who won in all of the Oscars categories.
Academy Website Database
If you're interested in Oscars Awards stats, there's no better place to go online than the database at the AMPAS website, here.
Also, Peter Knegt of INDIEwire has put together a great article tracking movie awards to date.
Stay tuned!